Zune, the forthcoming portable media player from Microsoft that the software giant hopes will give the iPod a run for its money, took a big blow today when an influential technology industry analyst said he was "underwhelmed" by it.

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said the Zune player, expected to hit stores in time for the holiday shopping season, could end up being "another classic case of overpromising and underdelivering" by the world's biggest software company.

The Zune could end up making a dent in the market share by the other major MP3 player makers, like SanDisk, Creative, and Samsung, Wu wrote in a research report. But the iPod's lead in the space--recent data from NPD Group puts its market share at 76 percent--is safe, he said.

Instead, Wu compared the iPod's current run with that of the Sony Walkman in the 1980s and 1990s.

"Walkman maintained its dominance over a 15- to 20-year period despite countless competitors trying to create a 'Walkman killer,'" the analyst wrote.

Given the early buzz about the Zune, Wu said he expected "an all-new design from the ground up."

But with the recent revelation that MP3 player maker Toshiba is manufacturing the Zune, according to recent FCC filing by the company, Wu said the Zune isn't much more than a "repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat," referring to the company's own player.

We particularly criticized the Zune's iPod-like clickwheel, which "does not scroll nor is touch-pressure sensitive, making navigation difficult, particularly for users with large music, video and photo libraries." Apple has a patent on the scrolling clickwheel, and therefore many of its competitors have duplicated the design without the functionality.

As previously reported, the Zune player will have a 30GB hard drive, three-inch video screen, built-in FM tuner, wireless capability, and will come loaded with audio and video content from artists Hot Chip, 30 Seconds to Mars, and Cansei de Ser Sexy (CSS).

But with the 30GB Zune likely to cost $300, Wu said Microsoft is missing the sweet spot of the MP3 player market, where cheaper, smaller-capacity players like the iPod nano and sanDisk e200 series have had success.

The analyst also took the opportunity to jab at Microsoft's Xbox and Xbox 360 video game consoles, calling those hardware lines a "financial failure."

"We believe Microsoft's effort in portable media will likely result in similar economics," he said.